There is a lot of internet speculation on the future of current Big 12 teams. We all
know assume that the Texas A&M Aggies are heading to the SEC. But what about the futures of the other nine Big 12 schools? Who will land on their feet and who will fall out of the BCS graces?
Let's take a look at the percentage chance that each of the remaining schools will be in a BCS conference when if the Big 12 crumbles.
I've divided the conference into three groups, The "Fans Will Love Reading This" Group, The "Fans Will Agree With Me Privately, But Blast Me in the Comments" Group and The "Fans Will Send Me Hate Mail" Group.
See who is in each group and what the percentages are after The Jump.
The "Fans Will Love Reading This" Group
Texas Longhorns, 100% - Texas is, obviously, the cream of the Big 12 crop. Whether they end up in the Pac-12, B1G or end up independent, Texas has nothing to worry about.
Oklahoma Sooners, 100% - Like Texas, OU is a school that other conferences covet. It's looking like if the world shifts that OU would end up in the Pac-12, but the SEC is also in play for the Sooners.
Missouri Tigers, 100% - I haven't read a report, either coming out of the Show-Me State or by one of the national writers that doesn't have Mizzou landing in a BCS conference. Between the St Louis and KC markets, MU brings enough with them to warrant admission into one of the big boy conferences.
Kansas Jayhawks, 99% - KU is interesting. They don't bring much fanfare from their football team, but their basketball fans are rabid enough to make KU a desirable ‘get.' Though they essentially split the KC market with Mizzou and K-State, their name brand basketball program is good enough for most conferences. Their limiting factor may be the Kansas state legislature's desire to keep KU and K-State as a package deal.
The "Fans Will Agree With Me Privately, But Blast Me in the Comments" Group
Oklahoma St. Cowboys, 85% - Ok State's chance of admission into a power conference is based on their tie to OU, and most conferences would gladly take the Cowboys as a package to secure OU. As a stand-alone product they are less desirable, but all indication point to the Oklahoma schools uniting and winding up together.
Texas Tech Red Raiders, 75% - Like OSU, Tech is riding the ‘Horns wave. The only difference is that if UT ends up going independent then Tech is on the outside looking in. Again, like OSU, they don't necessarily bring enough by themselves to gain admission into a BCS conference, but no conference would deny admission to UT if Tech was a contingent factor.
The "Fans Will Send Me Hate Mail" Group
Kansas St. Wildcats, 65% - Here's the problem with K-State, they simply don't bring a large enough TV market with them, and don't have a powerhouse football team that can carry TV viewership. They split the KC market 3-ways and the rest of Kansas is so sparsely populated that K-State fans don't drive revenue like other schools. Their footprint screams Mountain West or MAC much more than Pac-12 or SEC, and KU doesn't have enough power to hold out for a package deal, so K-State might be left behind. I still give them a better than 50/50 chance, but just barely.
Baylor Bears, 35% - The Bears are another that need to rely on the Horns to gain entrance into a power conference. In truth they are in the Big 12 because former Texas governor Ann Richards is a Baylor alumnus and used political wrangling for Baylor's inclusion. With the way this expansion might shake out, I don't see Baylor as having enough support to partner with UT and see them being left out in the cold.
Iowa St. Cyclones, 25% - This is where I'll get my hate mail... ISU just doesn't have enough to warrant admission into a power conference. The split the Iowa market with a B1G school and just don't have a footprint outside of the state. I hate to dog a conference school like this, and Clone fans tend to hate my world view, but if the Hawkeyes don't campaign for ISU (and they won't) then who does? If nobody, what does ISU bring to a power conference that would make them extend an invitation?