Locks
Kansas (1)
Rankings:
AP - 2, Coaches - 2, RPI - 1, Sagarin - 2, Pomeroy - 2
Kansas is getting close to locking up a number one seed. I think making the semifinals of the Big 12 Tournament (one win) would probably be plenty, even if they lost to Kansas State in the semis. Kansas has pretty incredible numbers across the board and passes the eye test with flying colors: the Jayhawks run one of the most efficient and prettiest offenses in the country and have remarkable depth for a team that lost three players to the NBA draft last year--or any team for that matter. The Jayhawks should draw the Southwest Region (in San Antonio) while playing the first weekend in Tulsa, as those are the closest sites available.
Texas (2-3)
Rankings:
AP - 7, Coaches - 8, RPI - 14, Sagarin - 8, Pomeroy - 5
Texas needs to be careful not to fall off the second line. Unfortunately, even a championship run through the Big 12 may not garner the Longhorns a top spot (although another win against Kansas would certainly put them back in the conversation). But a loss in the quarters (against Baylor or Oklahoma) would almost certainly drop them to a three seed. I actually think Texas has a pretty favorable road in the conference tournament, although I think Missouri will be a very tough out given the tournament's location in Kansas City. As Kansas and Texas can't be in the same region (selection rules state that the top three teams from a conference must go to different regions), Texas will probably wind up in the Southeast Region (in New Orleans). If Texas can knock off Kansas, I wouldn't be surprised if the committee lets the Longhorns play in the Southwest as the two and moves Kansas over to the Southeast.
Kansas State (4-6)
Rankings:
AP - N/A, Coaches - N/A, RPI - 16, Sagarin - 25, Pomeroy 26
I may be a little overly optimistic thinking the Wildcats can get to the four-seed line, but I'm basing the projected seeds on momentum as well as resume. After a horrid start, the Wildcats stormed back to fourth place in the Big 12 to clinch a bye in the first round of the tournament. It's a toss-up between K-State and Kansas for which team is playing the best basketball in the conference right now, and I'm going to give the slight edge to the Wildcats because of the more recent head-to-head win (though Kansas wins on overall consistency). You shouldn't be surprised at all if K-State wins the tournament with Jacob Pullen leading the charge. In theory the fourth-seed line would be incredibly important, as it's the last of the "protected seeds", but with Kansas and Texas all but guaranteed to get better seeds, there's not a lot of hope that K-State will end up very close to home. Winning the Big 12 Tournament might get the Wildcats to a three seed (if they beat Texas and Kansas on the way there), but losing early (i.e. to Colorado) probably dooms them to somewhere around a five or a six.
Texas A&M (5-7)
Rankings:
AP - 24, Coaches - 22, RPI - 31, Sagarin - 34, Pomeroy - 47
The Aggies are interesting. I personally think they're a little overrated right now. I think they get a little too much credit for winning a lot of easy nonconference games. However, I think the Aggies are pretty safely in the 5-7 range because with the bye, they can't really have a disastrous showing at the Big 12 tournament (losing to Missouri is nothing to be ashamed of; on the contrary, I expect the Aggies to lose to Missouri).
Missouri (5-7)
Rankings:
AP - 22, Coaches - 24, RPI - 33, Sagarin - 27, Pomeroy - 25
Missouri took a hit by letting Kansas State clinch what looked like the Tigers' bye for the taking as last as last week. In some sense, Missouri is a wildcard. The Tigers really struggle on the road, but the NCAA tournament doesn't take place on the road. More importantly, the Big 12 tournament takes place in Kansas City. I think the "neutral court advantage" will push the Tigers past Texas Tech and Texas A&M. Will that be enough to offset the abysmal 1-7 road record the Tigers posted in conference play? I'm not sure. But the fact that Missouri has a decent computer profile--and has remained ranked in human polls despite recent struggles--makes me confident it'll get a strong seed on Selection Sunday.
See the Bubble teams after the jump.
Bubblers
Colorado (12-out)
Rankings:
AP - N/A, Coaches - N/A, RPI - 73, Sagarin - 56, Pomeroy - 60
Colorado is in a bad place. The Buffaloes are right on the edge of the field if the selection took place today. However, I'm not sure a win over Iowa State in the first round of the Big 12 Tournament will be enough to move the Buffaloes solidly into the field. This leaves a game against Kansas State in the second round. Colorado swept K-State during the regular season, but this is a different Wildcat team than it faced earlier in the season. Though the better Kansas State looks, the better Colorado's profile looks. The real problems with Colorado's profile come from a nonconference loss to San Francisco (totally inexcusable) and losses at Oklahoma and Iowa State. Barring a third win over Kansas State, I think Colorado is going to need some help from fellow bubble teams.
Baylor (out)
Rankings:
AP - N/A, Coaches - N/A, RPI - 80, Sagarin - 71, Pomeroy - 67
I think the Bears are done. That said, reaching the Big 12 tournament finals might be enough to get the Bears a 12-seed. But I'd be very shocked if the Bears knocked off Texas (I wouldn't be shocked to see them lose to Oklahoma in the first round). The cold truth is Baylor didn't rack up any really good wins and played a pretty abysmal nonconference schedule (especially when you look at who they beat). Beating Colorado and Nebraska and sweeping Texas A&M just isn't enough to merit a bid on its own.
Spoilers
Nebraska
Oklahoma St
Oklahoma
Iowa State
Texas Tech
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