Week 4 Results: Big 12 Football Point Spreads & Predictions

Well there were only five games on the Big 12 slate yesterday with two of them being conference matchups and I would say they definitely were exciting to watch. The Cowboys of Oklahoma State showed some resilience in coming back on the road against the Aggies and K-State showed they are a much better football team than the one who opened the season barely squeezing by Eastern Kentucky.

As for my picks this weekend, I didn't have a stellar weekend but just an okay one. I made another move in the positive direction as I ended up going 3-2 thanks in part to Missouri to not letting the game get out of hand to end the evening last night.

MY OLD RECORD AGAINST SPREAD THIS SEASON: 7-12

MY NEW RECORD AGAINST SPREAD THIS SEASON: 10-14

So down below are the games, their spreads and my predictions. Please feel free to make any comment you want regarding the games or my predictions or comments.

Please note the spreads I use come from the website www.vegasinsider.com and I try to use the most common spread listed amongst the different sports books assuming there is a variance.

Kansas State Wildcats at Miami Hurricanes - Miami is a 13 point favorite

Saturday - 2:30 Central - ESPNU

MY PREDICTION: The Hurricanes are coming off an impressive victory 24-6 against Ohio State where they were led by RB Lamar Miller who ran for 184 yards. The Hurricanes were helped by getting five players back from suspension including starting QB Jacory Harris. The Wildcats meanwhile got some confidence back as they spanked Kent State by a score of 37-0. It is hard to know for sure but the K-State defense appears to be better this year as they got their first shutout since 2006, this will be their first major challenge. This will be K-State's first road test of the season and it will be Collin Klein's first real test as the leader of the K-State offense. I believe K-State has the better coach in the game but Miami has more athleticism so this could be a fun game to watch. In the end though I don't think K-State has enough offense to hang with the Hurricanes and the game eventually gets away from them and Miami secures the win and the cover.

RESULT: K-State 28 - Miami 24

This was a game that was controlled by Kansas State in the first half thanks to strong defense and solid quarterback play from Collin Klein who led the Wildcats on two impressive scoring drives. In the second half, the game went back & forth with it looking at times like Miami might take control and pull away but Klein & the Wildcats simply wouldn't go away. In the end a late goal line stand and KSU comes back to Manhattan 3-0 with a road win over an ACC team. As for my prediction, I totally underestimated the KSU offense as well as the possible letdown for the Miami Hurricanes coming off their big win so I started the weekend off with a loss. Also the crowd size for Hurricanes games is embarrassing especially for a program with the history they have.

0-1

Oklahoma State Cowboys at Texas A&M Aggies - A&M favored by 3.5 points

Saturday - 2:30 Central - ABC

MY PREDICTION: How is this to start off the conference season with two teams ranked in the top ten? The Cowboys roll into College Station looking very strong as it appears they have an offense that can't be stopped as they are averaging 52.3 points per game. The Cowboys look to win their fourth straight game against Texas A&M but it will be tough in Kyle Field which should be rocking and rolling. The Aggies have looked strong as well this year as they have outscored their opponents 83-21 in their two games. While I think Ryan Tannehill & Cyrus Gray should have some success against the Cowboys defense I just don't think A&M can deal with Brandon Weeden, Justin Blackmon & Joseph Randle. I also like the fact that Oklahoma State is getting points here so I am going to pick Oklahoma State to not only beat the spread here but to win this game outright.

RESULT: Oklahoma State 30 - Texas A&M 29

At halftime this looked like another game where the Cowboys were an over-hyped football team who was going to lose when faced with a big game opportunity as they trailed the Aggies 20-3. Then as if you were watching a basketball game where one team goes on a run, the Cowboys stormed out in the second half scoring 27 unanswered points powered by Brandon Weeden and Justin Blackmon. As you can imagine I was a little worried on my prediction at halftime but in the end this game ended up going in my favor. I guess better luck in the SEC for the Aggies.

1-1

Rice Owls at Baylor Bears - Baylor is a 20 point favorite.

Saturday - 6:00 Central - Fox Sports Southwest

MY PREDICTION: For the life of me I cannot figure out why this spread is this low. Maybe the oddsmakers think that Baylor isn't as good as the Texas Longhorns whom Rice played and lost too in Week 1 of the season by 25 points so they pulled the spread down a few points from that. With how the offense is cranking down in Waco with Robert Griffin and Kendall Wright, I am going to take Baylor to win and cover. I should probably go the opposite of this selection though since I feel very confident in this choice which is usually a bad thing when it comes to picking games.

RESULT: Baylor 56 - Rice 31

The Bears once again dominated on offense behind Robert Griffin III as he threw for five touchdowns and ran for another in what was a great fantasy football day for him. Baylor jumped out to a quick 28-0 lead in this one and the game kind of went back and forth from there but with Baylor never in any danger of letting Rice seriously get back into the contest although they did give up the spread at one point as their lead dropped to 18 points. In the end though the Bears got the win and the cover here so I got a second game correct.

2-1

Nevada Wolf Pack at Texas Tech Red Raiders - Tech favored by 20 points

Saturday - 6:00 Central - Fox College Sports

MY PREDICTION: Nevada opened the season up by losing 69-20 to Oregon and then last week they barely beat a San Jose State team by a score of 17-14. Meanwhile, Texas Tech has come out and racked up two blowout victories behind the play of QB Seth Doege who has thrown for 727 yards and 8 TD's this season while also not throwing an interception. I do not know much about Nevada this year except it sounds like they are in sort of a rebuild mode so I think Tech comes out strong as they finish up their non-conference slate before traveling to Kansas next weekend to open up Big 12 play. I am going with Tech to win this game and cover the spread.

RESULT: Texas Tech 35 - Nevada 34

It seems like every week in college football there is a "wtf" game that takes place and this week it involved the Red Raiders. Seth Doege threw a touchdown pass with 44 seconds left in the game to give Tech the come from behind victory and move their record to 3-0 heading into conference play.  The Red Raiders defense struggled mightily as they gave up 562 total yards to the visiting Wolf Pack from the WAC conference, not a good sign as next week Tech travels to Lawrence to take on the explosive KU offense. I expected Tech to come out strong in their final non conference game but apparently I thought too highly of them so I completely missed the boat on this game as Tech came nowhere close to covering.

2-2

Missouri Tigers at Oklahoma Sooners - Sooners favored by 21 points

Saturday - 7:00 Central - FX

MY PREDICTION: Here is another game with a spread that instantly grabs your attention. Yes the Sooners are the #1 team in the country and they are playing at home where they never lose but on the other hand they are coming off an emotionally draining game at Florida State last weekend and they are hosting a Big 12 team they lost to just last season. Maybe the oddsmakers figure that OU will come out energized and ready to enact some revenge against the Tigers who bring in a first year starting QB in James Franklin. A key figure to watch in this game is emerging RB Henry Josey for Missouri who lit up Western Illinois for 263 rushing yards last weekend, the Tigers will once again have to be able and establish the run game. While I don't expect much of a letdown for OU, you would have to expect some sluggish play in the beginning of this one. I think the Sooners will win this game but I think Missouri hangs around for awhile and does not allow OU to cover the spread in this one.

RESULT: Oklahoma 38 - Missouri 28

This game started out really well for anyone who placed money down on Missouri getting 21 points as they raced out to an early 14-3 lead. At that point you felt you could pretty much relax since you were basically thinking that Missouri couldn't blow that kind of margin. Then for anyone familiar with a 1987 Sylvester Stallone movie named Over The Top, video clip here, the Sooners flipped the switch and raced out to a 31-14 lead at one point. The Tigers  were able to battle though in the fourth quarter to not allow the Sooners to turn this one into a laugher. A late touchdown by MU made the final score a little closer but still a solid solid win for OU. So another win for me on my prediction as the Tigers proved the spread to be too high.

3-2

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