Do the Kansas Jayhawks Have the Easiest Path to Final Four of the #1 Seeds?
With the NCAA Tournament field set yesterday the debate in workplaces all over the United States begins today on a variety of topics. They range from which teams got snubbed (Colorado) to which conferences got no respect (Big 12).
I am going to focus on one subject and that is which #1 seed has, in my opinion, the easiest path to the Final Four in Houston. Just to refresh everyone the four #1 seeds in no particular order are: Ohio State Buckeyes, Duke Blue Devils, Kansas Jayhawks and Pittsburgh Panthers.
My pick is none other than the Big 12's own Kansas Jayhawks. My reasoning for this pick goes as follows.
Once Kansas gets done with their scrimmage against Boston University in the 1st round they will play the winner of the UNLV vs Illinois matchup. Yes the Runnin Rebels have a 24-8 record but they finished fourth in the Mountain West and Illinois went 19-13 this year and somehow snuck into the tournament.
The Runnin Rebels are a guard oriented team with only two players on their roster listed taller than 6'8", you don't think that Marcus and Markieff Morris along with Thomas Robinson wouldn't be licking their chops for that matchup. The Rebels best win is probably against Kansas State on a neutral floor where they won by four points, this is also the first game where Jacob Pullen and Curtis Kelly did not play due to suspension.
Illinois enters as a team that did not even make it to 20 wins and has been overrated all year long due to high expectations and the fact they play in the Big 10 conference. On paper the second round looks like a cakewalk for the Jayhawks.
The other #1 seeds have, in my opinion, tougher possible second round matchups. Pittsburgh faces the possibility of seeing last year's national runner up in Butler. Ohio State could see either George Mason or a dangerous Villanova squad. Duke has the chance of facing Tennessee who earlier this year beat #1 seeded Pittsburgh in a game at Pittsburgh.
The #4 and #5 seeds in each bracket are most likely whom the #1 seeds will play in the Sweet Sixteen round, that is assuming no major upsets. This is the round where I think a distinct edge goes in Kansas favor with Pittsburgh probably a close second behind the Jayhawks.
The #4 and #5 seeds in KU's bracket are Vanderbilt and Louisville. Both are formidable teams from power conferences but neither is going to really scare a top seed. Vanderbilt is a solid team with some quality wins but only finished at 9-7 in a somewhat watered down SEC Conference. Louisville is well coached under Rick Pitino but does not possess the star power they did just a few years ago.
Pittsburgh meanwhile has the Wisconsin Badgers and K-State Wildcats as their #4 & #5 seeds respectively. While the Badgers also won't scare anyone they have a great coach in Bo Ryan and a dynamic scoring point guard in Jordan Taylor. The Wildcats were playing as well as anyone in the country entering the tournament and are led by a senior with tournament experience in Jacob Pullen.
In the other two brackets the Duke Blue Devils drew arguably the toughest #4 & #5 seeds in Texas and Arizona. Can't imagine a possible matchup of one of those two teams makes the Blue Devils very happy.
Meanwhile the overall #1 seed Ohio State Buckeyes get Kentucky and West Virginia as their #4 & #5 seeds. While West Virginia is probably not a Final Four team like last season they are still a hard nosed basketball team under Bob Huggins and Kentucky has a great athletic freshman class with Brandon Knight, Terrence Jones & Doron Lamb.
The round where Kansas maybe does not have the best matchup if the chalk holds all the way through could be in the Elite 8 but that is also debatable.
The Jayhawks would have to face a possible opponent of either #2 Notre Dame or #3 Purdue. The Fighting Irish finished a strong 26-6 in the Big East which got 11 teams in the NCAA Tournament whether it deserved it or not. A look at Notre Dame's losses though are telling as in five of their losses they were beat by double digits. The Irish are an outside shooting club led by Ben Hansbrough and Tim Abromaitis but they do not possess an above average inside game. This matchup would greatly favor Kansas.
Purdue on the other hand could represent a challenge as they have two stars on their team in 6'10" forward JaJuan Johnson and 6'4" guard E'Twaun Moore. The Boilermakers though limp into the tournament coming off bad losses against Michigan State and the lowly Iowa Hawkeyes. This late season performance doesn't bode well for Purdue.
The Pitt Panthers might have an easier draw with their #2 & #3 seeds with Florida and BYU but then again does anyone want to have the possibility of facing Jimmer Fredette who could single handily win a game for his team.
Not to sound like a Duke apologist but if they can get to the Elite 8 they face strong competition from #2 San Diego State or #3 UConn. Much like Jimmer Fredette for BYU, Kemba Walker could take over a game and win it for his team. The Aztecs are a bit of an unknown with how well they will do but they do have an athletic frontcourt with Kawhi Leonard and Billy White.
Ohio State also has a tough draw with ACC regular season champion North Carolina as the #2 seed. The Tar Heels have been playing strong ball late in the year and have a championship coach and an emerging star in Harrison Barnes. The #3 seed is Syracuse who continue to frustrate opponents with their zone and they too are led by a championship coach in Jim Boeheim.
Coaching will be key in the NCAA Tournament and this is another area where I think the Jayhawks benefit. Obviously KU is led by Bill Self who is one of the best in the business. A look at their bracket shows only one other head coach who has won a national championship and that is Rick Pitino of Louisville. The Panthers of Pittsburgh also would only have to possibly face one other national title winning coach in Billy Donovan of Florida.
Meanwhile Duke & Ohio State each have two teams in their brackets who have national title winning coaches at the helm. Roy Williams and Jim Boeheim are in the Buckeyes bracket and Steve Fisher and Jim Calhoun are in Duke's side.
So when it comes down to it my initial thinking is that Kansas due to coaching and possible matchups have the easiest path to Houston. Naturally I am sure some Jayhawk fans will object to that reasoning but that is natural as all fans think their teams get the short end of the stick.
Ever wish that more things worked like college brackets? That you could seed everything that way? Top 64 pre-game foods. Top 64 college players. Well, now you can do just that with your friends, with the Allstate BFF Brackets, which takes your 64 top Facebook friends (an algorithm seeds them based on interaction) and seeds them in four regions, exactly like the real tourney. Once the tourney starts, your friends advance with the corresponding seeds – till one is left standing. Check it out at http://apps.facebook.com/bffbrackets/
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Last years second round game was supposed to be a cakewalk for the Jayhawks and look how that turned out. The worst thing Kansas can do is think they have an easy road to the final four and start talking teams for granted. They need to come out with the same intensity they had against Texas in the Big 12 championship or it could be another early exit for the Jayhawks.
The other brackets are very open as well. This is going to be a great tournament with a lot of amazing games. I think this could be a year we see a lot of 3,4, and possibly 5’s in the elite eight and final four. Connecticut is a dangerous team as well as a solid Louisville team. Texas is always dangerous if they play that tough style of defense they had going at the early part of the big 12 season. K-state could be a sleeper to get back to Elite 8 if Curtis Kelly and Samuels play well for them and stay out of foul trouble. In a year where they have only been a couple of dominating teams this is going to be one of the best tournaments in the last 10 years.
I think Pitt got the Duke treatment this year.
They have the easiest bracket IMO. Doesn’t mean they will win it though.
Marty
I do think KU got a favorable 8-9 pair though.
They SHOULD move on to the Sweet 16 pretty easily.
Marty
Agreed.
Tough to find anyone on Pitt’s side to win. Largely because Florida is really overrated at a two-seed (I know they’re profile looks decent, but having watched them play a lot this year they aren’t a two). I think Wisconsin has a chance to knock off Pitt though (they play the slow-down game that killed the Panthers against Notre Dame). I’d peg St. John’s as a real sleeper over there.
As for Kansas, Notre Dame is probably an easy matchup (talk about a shootout if they did play), but it’ll have to get there first. I think Illinois (depending on Demetri McCamey) and Purdue are going to be very difficult match-ups for KU. I think Illinois can score with Kansas, and if its soft frontcourt stays out of foul trouble (unlikely) and McCamey shows up, things could get dicey.
I also really like Louisville out of this group. It’s a weird team that doesn’t have any true “stars” but Siva, Jennings and Knowles can really play. They also play a really interesting defense, switching in and out of match-up zone that could cause real issues for the Jayhawks (especially if threes aren’t falling). However, lacking a star can sometimes make things difficult in close games down the stretch. That would be a fascinating match-up in my opinion.
Big fan of ACC and Big 12 basketball.
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